As a veteran voice in Las Vegas sports media, I’ve seen firsthand how conference realignments and media rights deals shape the future of college athletics. With the Mountain West Conference (MWC) and the new Pac-12 both facing pivotal moments, UNLV finds itself at a crossroads. Should the Rebels stay in the MWC or jump ship to a restructured Pac-12? Let’s break down the numbers, predict the future media deals, and make the case for why staying in the MWC might be the best move for UNLV.
Current Media Rights Landscape
To understand the stakes, we need to look at the current media rights deals across college football. Here’s a snapshot of the major conferences:
Power 4 Conferences
Big Ten: $7–8 billion over 7 years (2023–2030), $60–70M per school annually.
SEC: $3 billion over 10 years (2024–2034), $50–60M per school annually.
ACC: $4.8 billion over 20 years (through 2036), $35–40M per school annually.
Big 12: $2.28 billion over 6 years (2025–2031), $31.7M per school annually.
Group of 5 Conferences
AAC: $1 billion over 12 years (2020–2032), $7–10M per school annually.
Mountain West: $270 million over 6 years (2020–2026), $4–6M per school annually.
Sun Belt: $85 million over 5 years (2021–2026), $2–3M per school annually.
MAC: $100 million over 13 years (2017–2030), $1–1.5M per school annually.
CUSA: $800,000 per school annually (2023–2027).
Predicted Media Deals
Mountain West Conference
The MWC’s current deal, worth $270 million over six years, provides $4–6 million annually per school, with Boise State receiving an extra $1.8 million for tiered rights. As the deal expires in 2026, the conference has to find a new arrangement moving forward with their new collection of members. Given the growth of streaming platforms and the success of midweek games in boosting exposure (similar to the Sun Belt’s strategy), the Mountain West could leverage its geographic diversity and competitive football programs to secure a deal. Looking at the landscape here’s what the next deal could look like:
Projected Deal Size: $300–350 million over 6 years.
Annual Payout: $4.5 – 7 million per school.
Key Partners: Fox, CBS Sports Network, and potentially a streaming partner like Amazon or Apple TV+.
Strategy: Expand streaming options and emphasize midweek games to boost exposure.
New Pac-12
The Pac-12’s collapse has been one of the most shocking developments in college sports. No longer the conference of champions as all the key members jumped ship for other P4 conferences, the Pac-? is on life support. However, there’s still hope for a revival if the remaining schools (and potential new members) can band together and secure a strong media deal. Here’s the prediction:
Projected Deal Size: $1 billion over 12 years.
Annual Payout: $7–10 million per school.
Key Partners: ESPN and a streaming partner like Peacock or Amazon.
Strategy: Focus on regional rivalries, late-night games, and basketball to supplement football revenue.
UNLV’s Financial Boost in the MWC
Staying in the Mountain West provides UNLV with significant financial benefits, making the case for remaining the “lead dog” in the conference even stronger. Here’s the breakdown:
Signing Bonus: UNLV received a one-time payment of $25–30 million as an incentive to stay in the MWC.
Increased Annual Revenue: Beyond the signing bonus, UNLV will receive an extra $1.5–1.8 million per year on top of the standard media rights revenue.
Financial Stability: This influx of cash helps alleviate past budget concerns and provides stability for the athletic department.
Flexibility: The agreement allows UNLV to explore joining a Power 4 conference (SEC, ACC, Big Ten, or Big 12) without penalty if invited in the future.
Why Staying in the MWC Makes Sense
Given the financial landscape and UNLV’s position in the Mountain West, here’s why staying put might be the best move:
Guaranteed Revenue: With the signing bonus and increased annual payout, UNLV is in a strong financial position compared to other Group of 5 schools.
Lead Dog Status: UNLV has the opportunity to become a flagship program in the MWC, attracting recruits and building its brand without the shadow of larger Power 4 schools.
Future Flexibility: The MWC agreement allows UNLV to explore Power 4 opportunities without penalty, keeping the door open for future moves.
Stability vs. Risk: Joining the new Pac-12 would come with uncertainty, as the conference rebuilds and negotiates a media deal that may not match the AAC’s projections.
Final Thoughts
As a Las Vegas resident and longtime observer of UNLV athletics, I believe the Rebels are in a prime position to thrive in the Mountain West. The financial benefits of staying put, combined with the opportunity to lead the conference, outweigh the risks of joining a restructured Pac-12. With a solid media deal on the horizon and the flexibility to explore future opportunities, UNLV can focus on building its program and delivering a fan-first experience.
The Mountain West may not have the glitz of the Power 4, but for UNLV, it’s a stable and lucrative home—and sometimes, stability is the smartest play in the game of college football.