Las Vegas may be my home base, but this weekend, the Octagon is calling, and I’m ready to break down the fights for UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley. As always, I’m not just picking winners—I’m explaining why they’ll win. Let’s dive into the matchups that have my attention and the fighters I believe will shine.
Main Event: Kamaru Usman (-165) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+245)
Pick: Kamaru Usman
Why: While Buckley’s explosive striking and highlight-reel knockouts make him a dangerous opponent, Usman’s wrestling pedigree and fight IQ are on another level. Usman’s ability to control the pace, cut off the cage, and grind opponents down is unmatched. Buckley’s power is a threat, but Usman’s durability and cardio will likely neutralize it. Expect Usman to dominate with clinch work and takedowns en route to a decision victory.
Co-Main Event: Rose Namajunas (-232) vs. Miranda Maverick (+206)
Pick: Rose Namajunas
Why: Namajunas is a master of fight psychology and thrives in high-pressure situations. Her striking is crisp, her movement is fluid, and her ability to adapt mid-fight is elite. Maverick is a solid prospect with strong grappling, but Namajunas’ experience and technical edge should carry her to victory. Look for Rose to keep the fight standing and outpoint Maverick with precision striking.
Andre Petroski (+153) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-163)
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan
Why: Shahbazyan’s striking arsenal and ability to finish fights make him the favorite here. While Petroski’s grappling is dangerous, Shahbazyan’s takedown defense and ability to create space should keep him out of trouble. If Shahbazyan can avoid the ground game, his striking will likely overwhelm Petroski for a TKO finish.
Michael Chiesa (-320) vs. Court McGee (+285)
Pick: Michael Chiesa
Why: Chiesa’s grappling transitions and submission game are among the best in the division. McGee is tough and durable, but he lacks the dynamic skill set to keep up with Chiesa on the mat. Expect Chiesa to control the fight with takedowns and eventually secure a submission victory.
Paul Craig (+320) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-381)
Pick: Rodolfo Bellato
Why: Bellato’s grappling is world-class, and his ability to chain submissions together makes him a nightmare for opponents. Craig is known for pulling off miraculous submissions, but Bellato’s positional awareness and control should prevent any surprises. Bellato by submission is the most likely outcome.
Cody Durden (+167) vs. Jose Ochoa (-186)
Pick: Jose Ochoa
Why: Ochoa’s striking and ability to dictate the pace make him the favorite here. Durden is scrappy, but Ochoa’s technical edge and ability to mix up his attacks should carry him to a decision victory.
Alonzo Menifield (+500) vs. Oumar Sy (-700)
Pick: Alonzo Menifield
Why: Sy’s dominance in the grappling department and ability to control fights make him a heavy favorite... BUT, Menifield’s power is always a factor, and I'm taking the heavy handed striker in a surprise KO.
Betting Angles to Watch
Usman by Decision: Buckley’s power makes a finish risky, but Usman’s grinding style should secure a decision win.
Namajunas by Decision: Maverick is tough, and Rose’s technical striking should carry her through all three rounds.
Bellato by Submission: Craig’s submission game is dangerous, but Bellato’s grappling is on another level.
As always, "Data doesn’t lie, but Dana might." Study the tape, analyze the matchups, and bet smart. If you’re not studying tape, you’re just guessing. Let’s see how these fights play out in the Octagon this Saturday night!